I think I’ve been blogging far too much recently.
I’ll try and make this a quicky.
As the three of you reading THIS blog probably know, Apple is announcing something BIG tomorrow.
So big, they’ve put a picture on their home page proclaiming, “The first 30 years were just the beginning.”
Wow.
That’s some powerful stuff. I’m getting excited.
I mean, Apple’s done a lot of earth-shattering stuff in the last 30 years.
They popularized the graphical os.
They popularized aesthetic computers.
They popularized the mp3 player.
Hey 2007-2036, those are some pretty big shoes to fill!
So big, in fact, I couldn’t help but think to myself, “Self, what in the world could Apple possibly reveal that would make a statement like “The first 30 years were just the beginning.” not feel at least a little bit over-the-top?”
Remember back when I predicted there’d be a Video Airport Express? Well, I was a year-plus early, but I was right.
And they don’t call me Lightning-Strikes-Twice-McJonesey for nothing.
Josh’s list of things that would make the last 30 years of Apple look like over-cooked monkey-snot:
#1. Apple introduces teleportation.
That’s right, real deal, now-you-see-it-now-you-don’t, mother f-in teleportation. Holy creole-y, the world would be a DIFFERENT PLACE.
#2. Apple cures aging.
That’s way up there with teleportation, man, because who cares how long it takes to get somewhere when you don’t age?!
#3. Apple creates perfect virtual reality.
A lá The Matrix. Where it doesn’t really matter if you age or not, because your brain can live forever in a tube being fed perfect virtual reality. And then teleportation doesn’t matter either because you could just load up a new virtual reality and you’d be there. Although, what do we do when a meteor hits Earth and destroys all our brain tubes? Well, that’s why real teleportation is #1.
And that’s it. Seriously. Their statement has set the bar so high, that I’ll be disappointed if it’s anything outside of those three things.
Okay, now that we’ve pretty much accepted that I’ll be disappointed, maybe I’ll try and come up with the three things I think there’s actually a femto-scopic chance Steve possibly could announce tomorrow that I’d be most satisfied with.
#1. The iTunes Mega Store
iTunes now has every movie and TV show, ever. Plus, you can re-download any content you purchase. As a bonus, there’s no DRM. (ha!) Alternatively, you can subscribe for like $60/month and watch whatever you want. TV shows are available the minute they are shown on TV, including sports. Movies are available the minute they’re released in theaters, including internationally. Everything is available in whatever resolution you prefer, up to 1080p.
Now THAT would be something. And it’s something they could do. And it’s something we’ll eventually, inevitably, definitely, have. The question is just if it’ll be Apple providing it, and if it’ll be Apple providing it tomorrow. The odds are femto-scopic, but hey, it’s at least something Apple could do!
#2. The iPod Crumple
Apple releases the iPod Crumple… the first iPod printed on a paper-like material with a flexible screen. I mean, how long have we been hearing about flexible displays and digital ink? And for how long have we had that technology in sci-fi movies? If there’s anything that says “the future” more than rocket packs and sex-bots, it’s computers you can crumple up and hide in your backside!
Anyway, the iPod Crumple would basically be a piece of paper, the whole face of which is a flexible “touch-screen”, which you can fold, roll, crumple up, or whatever. It has built-in wifi, evdo, gps, bluetooth, 1TB of storage, lasts at least 16 hours on a charge, takes hi-res pictures, and has gangsta-hi-fiving bass. And it doesn’t really matter how much they cost, they’d sell a trillion. (Every human on earth would buy at least 166 of them.)
#3 iTV, All-In-Thee!
Apple releases the iTV, but it’s not just a glorified “Video Airport Express,” it’s a gaming system. I’ve been downloading retro games with my new Wii and Xbox 360, and it’s pretty sweet. Games are the one “entertainment piece” missing from the “iTMS puzzle” right now.. and the new iPods even play games! The iTV should work with all controllers on the market today, including the Wii-mote, and play all games on the market, ever.
How do they do this? Look, did you ask how they make the iPod Crumple? Or cured aging? Or frickin’ popularized candy-colored computers? Who cares! Maybe they just include every system inside, plus emulators! Maybe the thing costs $2000. Maybe they just create a “standard video gaming protocol” where every controller sends inputs that conform to this protocol and every video game system sends a/v replies back and they just stream it all over your new home FiOS connections to their super server farms in Underground Kentucky!
Who cares! The point is, with all the talk of “converging devices” and “the fight for the living room,” I know I’m sick and tired of having a TV, a cable box, a receiver, an Xbox, an Xbox 360 (thanks, Santa!), a Wii, and 22 controllers fighting in my living room! If I’m going to add an iTV, it better be getting rid of at least one other device… preferrably all of them! And everybody says video games are a huger and huger part of the entertainment world, so I can’t be the only person who’s got a few.
Anyway, there you have it. The three things that would impress me the most for Apple to announce tomorrow, followed by the three things Apple-has-a-fireball’s-chance-in-heaven-of-possibly-announcing that would impress me the most.
I’m prepared to be disappointed.
January 8th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
Really? No flying cars? I don’t know what kind of grim future you’re going to live in, but even with teleportation I still want my flying cars!
January 8th, 2007 at 4:06 pm
Apple could disappear into the ether and I could care less.
It’s not because I feel what they make is bad, because for the most part it’s not. I just feel that the fuzz/buzz/scuzz around every single little breath of Steve Jobs is ridiculous.
The same thing applies for other companies with crazy out of control marketing.
Whatever happened to the days where people just brought stuff out and we bought it? Why do we need this 18month lead time for everyone to go “OMG IS THE IFONEEEN!N?!!/!111″
People getting over-over-over-over-enthusiastic about immaterial products just ruin my day.
January 8th, 2007 at 4:35 pm
I’m still saving for my maxed out MAC PRO £13000+ by the time i finished ticking boxes.
i think you should blog more i didn’t know what to do with myself in the month you didn’t blog
January 8th, 2007 at 4:47 pm
You mean there are people who don’t dote on every single thought that comes out of Jobs’ perfectly pointy head?
January 8th, 2007 at 5:20 pm
[...] [...]
January 8th, 2007 at 5:29 pm
Hey, your picture of yourself in the apple logo makes me think that I should do another trick like I did with the Time Magazine Person of the Year cover. (Click my name — a Mac running Tiger plus an iSight camera is required. Obviously this page is hosted by DreamHost!)
January 8th, 2007 at 8:15 pm
What a small world. I remember, you Dan, when you published a certain truly excellent shareware program on the Mac. In fact, I still have it, and have managed to get it to run on occasion.
I hope things are going well with you.
I just joined DreamHost myself. Rather a different place.
Peace,
Gene Steinberg
January 8th, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Anything but Apple purchasing DreamHost will cause me to be disappointed.
It’s not that I want DreamHost to sell, I simply want to be able to put one of those cheesy “Powered by OS X” or “Powered by an XServe” icons on the bottom of my web page.
http://itotd.com/images/poweredbymacosxserver_sml.gif
January 8th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
I hope they made a API wrapper for windows applications that works right out of the box on 99.9% of all software. Hopefully it doesnt turn out to be stupid.
January 8th, 2007 at 11:45 pm
Given the usual buzz around any Apple product launch it’s more than likely something uninspiring like the “iToaster”. :P
January 9th, 2007 at 4:19 am
Still nothing… can I try to guess? Something related with video?
January 9th, 2007 at 4:20 am
A computer that works.
I was/is very disappointed with my iMac :(
January 9th, 2007 at 10:45 am
Turns out to be a phone/MP3/internet device – the “iPhone”. Big freaking deal. Even more of an anticlimax than previously anticipated.
January 9th, 2007 at 2:46 pm
“Big freaking deal. Even more of an anticlimax than previously anticipated.”
Isn’t this what everyone said about the Ipod? =)
As a loyal Treo user, this is a big deal to me. Web browsing on mobile apps … well … SUCKS.
Just like with the IPod, I think this will be the first step to actually being able to do web stuff (mail, http) easily.
I want one .. now!
January 9th, 2007 at 4:25 pm
Half of DreamHost is salivating over the iPhone, including me. A phone that runs OSX and is beautiful to boot? GIMME!
January 9th, 2007 at 4:44 pm
It’s too bad the data service on this iPhone is just EDGE. It seems like new Apple products always have something not quite perfect about them.
January 9th, 2007 at 6:01 pm
woohoo a media center pc… that’ll change the world
January 9th, 2007 at 6:19 pm
After much debate and rants and flame wars, I’ve decided to let Jobs and the lemming heard that follows him do whatever is it they please. I’ve been in the sw development for years and still today most IT managers could not care less about Apple/Mac. It’s a high-fashion platform that would simply hit ROI in the face. Actually I see them discontinuing the Mac not too far into the future…so much so they already changed names: Apple Inc. (i.e. forget about computers).
If people want to spend $500 + service for an over-hyped smart phone..sure…it’s their money, not mine. If you cannot stand Macheads, the best you can do is ignore them. And please don’t start…I’m not a fan of Mr. Softy…and I’m definitely not a DELL fan…so spare me.
January 9th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
ok you overhyped americans. What about something that will actually make a difference in the world? not just a prettier version of something everybody else has, a combination of: ipod(100gb)/iphone(thatworks)/icamera(10mgpxls)/ipda(osxbased)/iremotecontrol(universal)and canopener(forthebeer)???
I will pay usd$1000 and wait for months for it to be delivered…
January 9th, 2007 at 8:36 pm
OK, Apple says that 50% of the Macs being purchased these days are bought by people who are new to the platform.
Mac sales are higher than ever.
So Apple is going to discontinue the Mac? Why would any company want to discontinue a successful product?
Peace,
Gene Steinberg
January 9th, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Ok I was wrong, its the iphone… looks kinda cool… when does a mac stop being a mac? I mean now you have bsd with a pretty interface running on intel hardware. The phone does look neat though. Will probably end up getting one.
January 10th, 2007 at 3:44 pm
Toord -
Hate to break it to you, but Apple is making tons of cash on the Mac platform.
According to their quarterly report released in October, they shipped over 1.6 million Macs in the previous quarter, a 30% increase from the previous quarter. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I’d be very surprised if less than half their profits came from computer sales (the profit margins on things like computers is a lot higher than it is on iPods and the like). They changed their name because they’re doing more than one thing – true – but it’d be folly to stop selling Macs entirely.
FWIW: A rather large portion of our company uses and prefers the Mac, esp. those who do development/administrative work.
Granted this is just an anecdote, but going to any tech conferance and seeing all of the MacBook Pros people carry with them I’d hardly say that they are not being used by tech people (particularly those who get to choose what they use, rather than having it dictated by Pointy Haired Boss types who’ve been wined and dined by Microsoft and the like).
- Jeff @ DreamHost
January 10th, 2007 at 5:00 pm
Jeff,
Point taken. But what’s the Mac platform anymore? Isn’t it Intel? OSX…isn’t that a beautified version of OpenBSD? You mention 30% increase in sales…world wide market share? Have they broke the 5% yet? People in art-related fields always prefered Macs (even clones thereof) than a WinTel and now they have indeed captured the common public with the iPod’s so-called halo effect they have pushed their PC sales, no doubt. BUT, the business world still is driven by money and results. No matter how much an employee wants a Mac, if it’s gonna hurt the bottom line (even if marginally) then it’s a no-go. Once Apple become aggressive with the biz pricing, then thing might change. Until then you’re gonna see the DELL, HP, IBM and Gateway’s of the world ruling the corporate space.
Oh yeah…and Josh is not gonna get you guys iPhones! Tough cookies! ;)
January 10th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
So….Josh…I take it you’re disappointed?
January 10th, 2007 at 9:34 pm
> Point taken. But what’s the Mac platform anymore? Isn’t it
> Intel? OSX…isn’t that a beautified version of OpenBSD? You
I’m not sure what you’re getting at. It’s a product – some people like it an awful lot, some don’t – but either way Apple is making tons of money off of it. Things like what processor it runs on or what software runs at its core are a bit beside the point if it does what people ask of it.
> mention 30% increase in sales…world wide market share? Have
> they broke the 5% yet?
Don’t know. Probably not. Does it really matter, though? They’re still making lots of money – more and more of it every quarter. Their business is very profitable and they are growing in every conceivable way – profits, revenues and market share. Whether or not you like their products, it’s hard to say that they’re not doing well.
The fact is: You don’t need to completely dominate a market in order to get filthy stinking rich – dominate the right niche and you can still end up rolling in money.
> BUT, the business world still is driven by money and
> results.
It’s driven by money, to be sure, but I disagree on ‘results’. Often, it’s simply a matter of whose company has a chance to wine and dine the company’s suit-and-tie crowd first. Other times, companies will give the Mac a chance but choke on the somewhat higher initial cost (completely ignoring the cost of viruses, trojans and general support costs that Windows inevitably brings with it down the road). I’ve seen it happen.
Yeah, I’ve had the misfortune to work for a company like that – before I worked here – and I hardly consider that sort of mindset to be something to emulate or aspire to. If Apple can make some money off of ‘em, great, but I hardly consider that a necessity for success. Let Dell, Gateway, etc. have that market.
Now that I think about it, I personally think empowering everyday people to do cool, creative and entrepreneurial things is a lot more interesting than enabling some bloated corporation work on their sales projections or something. Part of the reason I left my old job to work at DreamHost, really.
- Jeff @ DreamHost
January 11th, 2007 at 12:09 am
Are the Dreamhost people all mac zealots then? =P
Personally, I can do without a $600 phone.
January 11th, 2007 at 8:01 am
“Personally, I can do without a $600 phone. ”
Which by the way its name infringes on Cisco’s trademark….it’s gonna be fun to watch and fun for the lawyers involved too. :)
January 11th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Yep, I’m disappointed!
No teleportation!
And I guess my thoughts on the iPhone are… it’d be better if it was at least available unlocked and on sprint/verizon.
It’d be better if it were cheaper.
It’d be better if it had gps built-in.
It’d be better if it could be crumpled up and hidden in your backside.
(So yeah, I don’t plan on getting one.. I’ve moved on past “smart phones”. I just have a teeny laptop with EVDO and long battery life in my bag.. it’s a great FULL computer! I use an old nokia brick that’s indestructible with great battery life.. it’s a great phone! I have a Canon SD600 for taking pictures.. it’s a great camera! And I have a Nintendo DS Lite for playing games.. it’s a great game-player!)
January 11th, 2007 at 11:06 am
> Are the Dreamhost people all mac zealots then? =P
Nope. Just the coolest ones. ;)
(there are a few hold-outs here – Josh included!)
- Jeff @ DreamHost
January 11th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
This would be nice if it had a decent PPI LCD display. I mean comeon, 160PPI? I know desktop LCD’s that have a higher PPI than that.
> Nope. Just the coolest ones. ;)
Geh! The coolest ones are the ones actually running linux like me with XGL/AIGLX. Desktop Linux FTW!
- Sandon @ DreamHost
January 12th, 2007 at 6:47 am
@Jeff,
If dominating a niche was as good as dominating the market, then why is Apple running tons of commercials in national/international TV? They already have complete supremacy in their niche, they are already making more money than God (or thereabouts), so why? Simple, businesses must expand or eventually perish (or stagnate).
I bet that other than new iPod models/normal uprgrade cycles for their Mac line their ROI cannot be as good as many think. For a company as famous and fabled as Apple is, is has to be painful not being able to reach a decent world wide market share.
I’m sure when Stevo & co. is thinking about a new product he’s not thinking about Apple’s niche. He’s thinking big, he wants it all, else what’s the drive?
Ask Josh if he is putting so much effort just so that Dreamhost dominates the garage-script-coder niche? Don’t think so. If anything he wants Dreamhost to be taken a bit more seriously by those customers who are not really interested in a good deal in as much as they’re interested in reliability and dependability. He wants DH to expand, grow and reach critical mass. Niche can take you for a ride, critical mass will take you all the way.
@Sandon….cool kids run Gentoo (installed from stage 1) :p
January 12th, 2007 at 1:28 pm
As cool as any of those would have been, is the iPhone really that disappointing? I mean, it was snazzy enough to warrant the colossal change from Apple Computer to Apple.
January 12th, 2007 at 3:57 pm
Toord -
> If dominating a niche was as good as dominating the market,
> then why is Apple running tons of commercials in
> national/international TV?
Because they don’t yet completely dominate their niche, and are looking to expand?
Trying to dominate a niche where your strengths are is a great business strategy, but that doesn’t mean that Apple hasn’t got room to grow even within their particular niche. There are millions of consumers with Windows PCs in their homes whom Apple could sell to – and are selling to, increasingly.
But it’s a bad business decision to pour all of your resources into every single market out there. Given limited resources, it’s best to market to those people who are most likely to buy your product. While Apple does and will continue to sell some of their products to the ‘enterprise’ market, they’re much better positioned to find growth in the consumer market due to their strengths (industrial design, UI design, mindshare due to the iPod, etc).
> For a company as famous and fabled as Apple is, is has to be
> painful not being able to reach a decent world wide market
> share.
While, I’m sure it’s plenty painful to be worth ‘only’ 72 billion dollars and not be worth a trillion or two, I’m not really sure what you’d recommend that they do. Give up?
> I’m sure when Stevo & co. is thinking about a new product
> he’s not thinking about Apple’s niche. He’s thinking big, he
> wants it all, else what’s the drive?
I think he is thinking big, hence the removal of “Computer” from the company name. Moving into a new area doesn’t mean giving up on the old one, though.
Let’s face it: Apple doesn’t want to become the next IBM. That’s a tired, played-out market, at least in their mind. Apple wants to become the next Sony, and the Mac is an instrumental part of that (both because it’s an excellent “media hub” and because Mac-related profits help drive their R&D). They want to sell a ton of cool gadgets with a nice high-margin Mac to go along with it.
> Ask Josh if he is putting so much effort just so that
> Dreamhost dominates the garage-script-coder niche? Don’t
> think so. If anything…
Trust me, Josh does dream big.
But, he’s not dumb. From the very start he/we have picked our battles and chosen whom we would market ourselves to. And, yes, there are certain markets we’ve more or less left to the other guys on purpose and are unlikely to chase after (Windows hosting, anyone?) – which is fine, as there’s plenty of room for us to grow in the markets we have chosen.
You can’t be something for everyone and still be especially good – or even decent – at all of those things. You have to pick and choose.
As it is now, we happen to be well liked by garage coders, webloggers, media types, teenagers, artists and all sorts of other people. There are so many of those people that we could continue at our current rate of growth for years without running out of them. Truth be told, we think the “regular person” web publishing market will be huge as the tools get easier to use, and we’re going to be there for that.
- Jeff @ DreamHost
January 12th, 2007 at 6:06 pm
I want to use DreamHost, plus.. I’m looking for a realiable, affordable webhost who can and will support my Apple made Macintosh. In return, I’ll support you right back.
Pj
January 13th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
@Pj
Huh?
May 30th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
[...] sure you remember back in early 2007 when I predicted Apple was about to announce the iTunes Mega Store, the iPod Crumple, and the iTV [...]